Indecision, Indecision

With May 1 in the rearview, most institutions are carefully calculating the incoming class for the fall. “Carefully optimistic” is what we’re hearing from most of our clients; moderately sure of the current count, but uncertain of what the summer will bring, both good and bad. While the reasons for confidence heading into the summer vary, one thing is for sure: decisions are getting later and later.

I think we can attribute this to three factors.

Consumer Empowerment

Families have more control than they have had in the buying process. They are (broadly) more knowledgeable and have access to information about their options. They have less money than they’ve had in many years and are inclined to scrutinize (they would describe it as “due diligence”) their options before purchasing.

All of this action occurs on their timeframe, making arbitrary deadlines mute (see: May 1 and most other “transactional” deadlines). Institutions are losing confidence for a very good reason: they no longer control information or the length of the engagement. This is just plain data. May 1 doesn’t matter to the consumer and frankly doesn’t matter to institutions all that much.

In an effort to secure sales (there, I said it), institutions hype (oh, I meant, overemphasize) the decision to apply and attend as though it is the biggest decision ever. It’s indeed important, but probably not as important as some other life choices. While there is data to suggest that the decision is significant, from the consumer perspective, this is a fallacy. And, you’ve heard us say this before: if it’s not true, not trustworthy, exchange won’t happen.

Parity

Further, the college “trial period” is in full effect: a third of students are attending more than one college on their way to a four-year degree. A quarter of those are switching states in the process. This “swirling” is mostly justified by the media as related to the cost of attendance. I interject: institutions are courting students to make the “decision of a lifetime” when the options are nearly the same. I won’t say the same, but VERY nearly the same. If this parity is as obvious as the consumer sees, to what end does committing early benefit them? And if option A is only slightly better (or different) than option B, how can an institution really be confident that students will attend and persist?

FEAR

From an evolutionary perspective, everything is speeding up. From culture to climate, everything is changing more quickly. I didn’t make this up. Things that we wanted yesterday are obsolete today (see: my used-to-be-awesome TV and to a lesser extent, my goth phase). Options we had yesterday also multiply overnight. This amplification can be extended to MOOCs, proliferation of program offerings and whatever “the next big thing” is or will be.

In addition, the speed at which negative events are occurring delays decision-making. Your warehouse can collapse, your government can audit you arbitrarily and your admission office can fall into a sinkhole. Right now. All of these elements manifest themselves as consumer indecision. Psychologically, indecision is the consequence of fear (from our animal brains), which essentially means, “I don’t want to make a mistake.”

None of this is particularly new information, nor does it significantly change the fact that at some point, institutions need to have some measure of who is coming in the fall. But that need for certainty on the part of the institution is being deflected onto the consumer as a superficial mandate. And in an era when every one hates colleges and universities, this seems antithetical to how institutions should behave.

To a larger detriment, institutions are actually embracing parity and ignoring any benefit that would result from being distinctive. It can be assumed that if the offerings were fundamentally different, then the certainty of the decision would be more definitive. Finally, as indecision is the result of a primal fear for making a mistake, then wouldn’t it behoove institutions to combat fear with love?

This previously appeared on rhbinformed.com.